Making the Call – Calculating Odds and Outs for Calling

There are times when you are on a draw and you are facing a bet. The only indication you have whether to call or fold is a vague feeling that you have a good chance to make a hand. But you can do a lot better than that, and figure out if a call is the right decision based on the odds, equity, and outs you have.

What is an Out?

An "out" is any remaining card which can improve your hand and give you a better made hand that your opponent.

If you have 6s4s and the flop is Ah5c7d, you have an open-ended straight draw. Either an 8 or a 3 would complete the straight, and since there are four of each of those cards in the deck, you would have a total of 8 outs.

Equity

After you know the amount of outs you have, which can be anywhere from zero into the dozens, you are able to use this number to figure out your "equity" in the hand. Equity refers to the chance that we have the best hand at showdown, and is represented in a percentage. 75% Equity means that based on the hand we have now and the amount of outs, we are likely to have the best hand three quarters of the time at showdown.

In order to calculate our equity we will are going to multiply our number of outs either by 2, or by 4. If we are on the flop we will multiply by 4, if we are on the turn we will multiply by 2.

To calculate the equity, you need to multiply the number of outs you have by 4 if you are on the flop or 2 if you are on the turn. You would not do it on the river, as there are no more cards remaining.

Equity Example

If we have that hand from above, where we had 6s4s with a flop of Ah5c7d, we have 8 outs after the flop, so our equity would be:

8*4 = 32%

If the turn card is a Ks then our equity is reduced. We still have 8 outs, but only multiply by 2 after the turn, for equity of:

8*2 = 16%

The Good, the Bad, and the Tainted Outs

A Good Out:

A "good" out is just an out that makes you the best hand, because it would not involve your opponents hand whatsoever. The example above is a classic illustration of a good out because there is no chance of a flush, and only a tiny chance of something like a full house or quads, so your straight would almost always be the best hand.

For example, you have As8s, and the flop comes QsTs8h. Of course any spade at this point is a good out, as you will make the nut flush. While an Ace or another 8 might also look like a good out, it's impossible to actually know. Consider the fact that your opponent might have a hand like AcQc, AcTc, KhJh, or ThTc. With those hands, an additional Ace will never help you, and an 8 might only help some of the time.

A Tainted Out:

When outs aren't good, they are considered to be "bad" or "tainted". In this case, these are outs which improve your hand, but also improve (either theoretically, or practically) your opponent's hand as well. In the example above, the Ace out would give you two pair, a nice hand. But the Ace is tainted because your opponent could have KJ and that Ace gives him a straight.

As an example, you have 5h7h after the turn, and the board is showing QhThAs4s. You have a nice flush draw, but any of the outs which would give you that flush are tainted, because your opponent might have a higher flush. Even without the flush draw, the Ah or 4h could be tainted, because they might also make a full house if your opponent currently has trips or two pair.

Discounting

When calculating equity, you need to compensate for the fact that some of your outs might be tainted. In that case, just subtract the tainted outs from the total. Looking at our As8s, QsTs8h from the good outs example, we have a lot of outs. If we think that all of the outs are good, then we have 9 spades, 3 aces, and two 8s for a total of 14 outs. Multiplied by 4 it gives us 56% equity, good enough to play.

But maybe we think that our opponent has KJ or another dangerous hand, and the Ace might only be a good out about one third of the time, with the 8 good only half the time. We then add the 9 spades, but only one Ace and one 8, for a total of 11 outs, which is 44% equity. If we want to be even safer, we can completely discount the Aces and 8s and only use the spades.

Also, if you feel that there is no chance to see the next card for free, you might want to multiply your outs by 3 or 2 on the flop for a more conservative equity measure and tighter play.

What are Pot-Odds?

In the game of poker you will hear the term "pot-odds" very often on TV, in poker rooms, or in strategy articles like this one. In basic gambling terms, odds are how much of our money we are expected to get back if we win a bet, which generally corresponds to the likelihood that they event will occur. If the odds on a horse are 20:1, it's a long shot that horse will win, and not a great bet to make over and over again. Pot-odds are the poker player's way of doing the same thing, and determining good and bad bets.

Gambling odds are usually represented as a ratio, where the first number is the amount won, and the second number is the amount required to bet. In the example of the 20:1 horse, you would win $20 for every $1 bet on it. Not a bad return, but it also means that the event is likely to happen 1 out of every 20 times.

When we are looking at pot odds, the two halves of the ratio represent:

(The money already in the pot):(The amount it takes to call)

Let's say that there is a pot of $30. Your opponent bets $10, what are the current pot-odds?

Well, there is already $30 in the pot and with the addition of the $10 bet; there would be a total of $40. Since the bet is $10, we need $10 to call. So the pot-odds are 40:10, or reduced down to 4:1.

What do the Pot-Odds mean?

Basically, pot-odds let you know how much money you would win if the bet was successful. At 4:1 pot-odds, that means that you would need to win one out of every four times in order for the call to be the right move. If you can win more than 25% of the time with 4:1 pot-odds, you are playing winning poker.

Deciding to Call

Once you have an idea of your outs, your equity, and the pot-odds, you can make the call on whether or not you should call the bet. Basically, pot-odds tell where your equity needs to be in order to call and continue the hand. With 1:1 pot-odds, your equity should probably be above 50% in order for the call to make you money over the long term. The higher the odds, the lower the equity you need. If you are getting 5:1 pot-odds and have 35% equity, you should always call. On the other hand, 1:1 pot-odds with 17% equity is a bad call almost every time.